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  • Property-a-holics

    Capital growth rate moving forward

    We are in a very different world

    and what ever happens this is going to take years to sort out in the uk

    we have young aginst old

    we have north aginst south

    we have super rich aginst the rest

    and we have black aginst white

    the uk is divided just look around you

    we haven’t been here before


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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

    I may have similar views to you if I'd not had any CG in the last 13 years. But CG has allowed a lot of investors in the SE to expand.

    As JC has stated, 2% CG is in effect 8% because I've had to put 25% deposit (+ horendous stamp etc of course).

    Done properly the returns are still there, as a beginner though there's plenty of pitfalls.

    It's definitely a buyers market at the moment!

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    The ball is now rolling

    when s24 and stamp duty were announced we lived in a different uk

    we could be in for one hell of a fall in SE values and then stagnation for years

    this is going to be a very different crash and the worry has to be how do we get out of the mess we are in

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

    The SE and north have been vastly different for many decades now. The cache that London has around the world cannot be undone in a few years. Everyone I've ever spoken too about London from other countries still thinks it is a magical place.

    There's many people from other countries around the world that would still gladly swap the mostly self-induced (by Govts) turmoil we have in the UK. Chat with them DL and see what feedback you get?

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    ``JC sees growth of around a few percent a year if you take into consideration inflation it’s an asset standing still with the work and stress of running it``

    I like inflation it erodes my mortgages

    100K mortgage in 1999 is only about 60K today thanks to inflation 

    If my assets stood still  I would of course get rid - 

    but unsurprisingly they dont stand still -  they grow

    Rental income buys the food for my table and it heats my house

    Leverage and compound interest  magnify capital growth profits

    Stress is subjective . Some people are just stressy and highly strung 

    Delegate if you get stressed out by it all I advise . Property investment is not for everyone

    Personally I think working 9 - 5 for an employer for 45 years is far more stressful

    No one can say  to me  now -  I want that report on my desk tomorrow.

    I dont have to scrape the ice of my windscreen at 7am .

    My neighbours do ( well some of them do ).

    Freedom is pretty stress free I find

    Aim for a clear horizon


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    Jonathan Clarke. http://www.buytoletmk.com


    Capital growth in property depends upon many factors. Wage growth, inflation expectation and house price to earnings ratio, interest rates  to name a few. Bottom line is prices will remain flat for the next two decades.

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    What factors have there been to generate capital growth to date and what is there likely to be in the future -

    Falling interest rates improving affordability or increasing interest rates and reduced affordability

    Increasing investment in BTL or flat market or landlords selling

    Favourable tax treatment or more S24 type legislation

    Affordable house prices or house prices at high income multiples 

    More QE or reversal of QE

    More HTB or end of HTB

    More immigration or emigration

    In EU or Brexit

    Favourable lending criteria or PRA restrictions on lending criteria

    I think we have had the best over the last 10 - 20 years






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    In my opinion, it's politics and demographics that primarily influence house prices, not economics.

    Political decisions drive the market up; less regulation, easier credit etc. Political decisions drive the market down; PRA, S24 etc. Baby boomers have been voting for higher house prices for the last 25 years because it was in their self-interest. It's basically a wealth transfer to them from younger people.

    The politics has already turned and is only going to get a lot worse for landlords from here on. As boomers die off and millennials and gen z become a larger voting block, landlords are going to get eviscerated. Young people hate landlords and don't own property, so expect a lot of pain and lower house prices in the future. And the demographics don't look good with Brexit either.

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