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  • Property Prices

    Property crash could push prices to £70,000

    There have been warnings in recent weeks that the UK housing market could be heading for a crash, now an analysis by online estate agent eMoov.co.uk is suggesting prices could fall to as low £70,000 in some parts of the UK.

    According to the analysis, the biggest drop in value would be seen in the South East of England where prices could reach £253,327, down from £315,807 today, a devaluation of £62,480.

    Northern Ireland, meanwhile, would see house prices reach the lowest level in the UK, down from more than £150,000 to £77,378, with properties at the lower end of the market falling even further. Northern Ireland is vulnerable in part because house prices there have never recovered from the last property crash, almost ten years ago.

    London could lose more than £85,000 in value in the event of a crash, falling to £395,753.

    The research by eMoov used land registry data to look at the fall in property prices in each region of the UK between 2007, their pre-crash peak, and 2009, when prices started to appreciate again.

    Using current average prices for each region, eMoov then calculated what an equivalent drop would mean for house values if there were to be a new housing market crash.

    If these falls were to happen, eMoov are also predicting that it would take the market seven years and seven months to recover to current values.

    Russel Quirk, founder and director of eMoov, said; “Although many in London and the more inflated markets will be outraged at the idea of a four to seven year setback where their property asset appreciation is concerned, they would do well to spare a thought for those in the North East and Northern Ireland, who are still enduring the legacy of the last market crash.

    “What this research highlights is that, if you really do believe that what goes up must, at some point, come down, then you are far better off selling your home now, with a very slight depreciation of below 1%, than in the midst of a market crash with a potential deduction of around 19% on your property price, albeit a speculative crash at present.”

    House price falls of this scale would be disastrous for homeowners, many of who would be plunged into negative equity, where the value of their property is less than the outstanding balance of their mortgage.

    If you’re a landlord concerned about negative equity on your property, contact Landlord Debt Advisory for a consultation on 0161 222 4311 or online at landlorddebtadvisory.com.

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    So no reason why there should be a crash or to support the amount of the fall in prices other than this is the percentage fall between 2007 and 2009.  About as worthless as me saying prices will increase in the next three years by the same amount they have increased in the last three years.

    An exercise simply to get their name in the press.  Not worth the paper it is written on.

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    You can point to stalling earnings as a domestic factor and uncertainty on brexit as both a domestic and foreign factor (ground moving under ones feet and fear of a negative outcome on talks are hampering both foreign and domestic investors).

    I don't think there can be any meaningful upside in prices until there is clariuty on brexit, while prices can easily soften until the clarity comes, then taking a stronger direction depending on the outcome of talks by 2019.

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    That is as may be, I welcome any constructive comments and discussion but the above appears to be prices fell by x post 2007 and if that happened again these are what they would fall by.

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    I think we will see stagnation in capital values

    Low wage growth

    tougher lending criteria

    And the European Factor

    And Britain still cutting back to pay its debts

    and of course a Labour Govt within four years

    It will come back but I think Ten Years is my guess and interest rates will stay low too

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.