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  • Property Prices

    BrExit - impact on property market

    As it was recently revealed, Bank of England is trying to assess the financial shocks that might hit Britain, should it decide to leave European Union in the "in/out" referendum circa 2017. It would be interesting to read your opinions on how the property market would react (if at all) to such referendum outcome.
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    Thank you for starting this topic.

    I think for starters we would breathe a sign of relief that the EU cannot meddle any more in our mortgage market!

    They have been trying to muscle in on it for a number of years, but, so far, lenders have fended them off and kept them at bay. Smile
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    Sadly my current mortgage provider is a victim of the EU Mortgage Directive. They will not be able to provide a remortgage deal for us in 2yr time.

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    Sooner the better; the thing about regulations are they dont often get rolled back. We will soon be having MMR type affordability tests if you decide to rent out your current home courtesy of the European Union.

    Im sure there will be some "scares" about the property market - as there were when Tony and Brown wanted us to adopt the Euro Currency. It was all doom and gloom for our financial markets and lack of investment - that did not happen.

    United Kingdom is a safe haven, world wide. Our property laws and courts stand above others and our lending institutions some of the safest. The World Bank has ranked the UK first in Europe and sixth in the world to operate business. A stable regulatory environment, the international language for business, Two of the top six best schools in the UK figure in top three global universities. London which is world's largest financial centre is situated in the UK.

    I don't see lack of inward investment, with us being EU's biggest trade partner I dont see loss of employment. My bet is things will continue as they are.

    Except for Scotland - they already have an issue with lenders offering finance due to unstable in/out. If we do vote to leave the EU and Scotland does not! they may be in for an in-stable time and presumably the few lenders currently there pulling out.

    As much as Nigel blame immigration of almost everything; such as Housing. Its a drop in the ocean especially with no concrete plans to build to our current needs. As well us having a high immigration quota if we do get back control of our borders - immigration is needed and wanted by business so will remain in some form.

    Perhaps lending rates may rise as markets adjusts to changes but that should be worked in - with the long long long run-up.

    Moody's disagree with my view
    MortgageStrategy Wrote:As the EU accounts for around 50 per cent of the UK’s goods and 36 per cent of its services exports, a withdrawal from the EU could have negative implications for trade and investment, both ahead of the event and following it
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    Don't think UKIP blame immigration for the woes of the UK at all!
    But admitting over ten million migrants over the past ten years to the UK population certainly hasn't helped and has been a negative drain on UK infrastructure etc
    There would be no housing crisis if immigration had been controlled
    UKIP does not have ANY issue with migrants from WHEREVER they come from
    They only wish for a controlled immigration policy accepting migrants from anywhere in the world just the policy that Australia has had in place for the past 65 years!!!
    Uncontrolled mass immigration has had detrimental effects on the UK
    Pointing out such is not blaming immigration per se
    After all if all of a sudden 22000 doctors came from Romania to work in the NHS you would not have a peep from UKIP
    They would be needed and would enter the UK as part of a controlled migration system
    Of course the problem might be what about all the Romanians who may not have any doctors in their own country!?
    Importing millions of trained immigrants from poor counties smacks of colonialism by the West stripping poor countries of their trained professionals
    The UK should look to solving the migration problems by training the workers we need and not allow them to laze around on welfare
    Why for example have we not been training enough GP's!!??
    The UK should utilise its own population to satisfy its needs without having to rely on floods of immigrants to do jobs which can mostly be done by British nationals!
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    (25-05-2015 03:35 AM)paul_barrett Wrote:  Don't think UKIP blame immigration for the woes of the UK at all!
    But admitting over ten million migrants over the past ten years to the UK population certainly hasn't helped and has been a negative drain on UK infrastructure etc
    There would be no housing crisis if immigration had been controlled
    UKIP does not have ANY issue with migrants from WHEREVER they come from
    They only wish for a controlled immigration policy accepting migrants from anywhere in the world just the policy that Australia has had in place for the past 65 years!!!
    Uncontrolled mass immigration has had detrimental effects on the UK
    Pointing out such is not blaming immigration per se
    After all if all of a sudden 22000 doctors came from Romania to work in the NHS you would not have a peep from UKIP
    They would be needed and would enter the UK as part of a controlled migration system
    Of course the problem might be what about all the Romanians who may not have any doctors in their own country!?
    Importing millions of trained immigrants from poor counties smacks of colonialism by the West stripping poor countries of their trained professionals
    The UK should look to solving the migration problems by training the workers we need and not allow them to laze around on welfare
    Why for example have we not been training enough GP's!!??
    The UK should utilise its own population to satisfy its needs without having to rely on floods of immigrants to do jobs which can mostly be done by British nationals!
    So the Aussies have no housing crisis because of their immigration points system- hmmm that is questionable.
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    Really

    No they don't have a housing problem because they CAN control who enters the country

    Oz is suffering as its national income which mostly comes from rare earths is having a major downturn as the Chinese have stopped importing

    7 flights a day of FIFO workers used to fly out for the mines from Perth

    Now this doesn't happen

    Property prices have stopped increasing

    Do you remember all those who attempted to reach Oz as alleged asylum seekers

    They were assisted by by the Australian Coastguard to seek asylum in Papua, New Guinea

    Once this occurred the asylum seekers wanted to be flown home to their countries once they knew they would not be allowed to enter Australia

    Funny that!!!??

    A cynic might consider they may have been economic migrants!!!




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    I disagree with your analysis. Our housing crisis began in the 80's when local authorities (our biggest post war builder providing circa 50% of the UK's housing stock) were neutered, unable to borrow to build new stock and legally obliged to sell existing stock at less than replacement value.

    Today reported in most newspapers it was estimated by the IFS that the chancellor has a 50% chance of producing a budgetary surplus in the life of this parliament. This is dependant on net migration. i.e the higher our net migration figure the more likely we are to balance the budget through increased tax receipts.

    Ukip's entire issue is with immigration...That is the only issue on which they are all agreed. I remember an embarrassed farage having to distance himself from his own party's manifesto as it was so obviously loony.

    I believe 35% of the NHS doctors are from abroad. They would go elsewhere if for example they were prevented from bringing spouses with them. On one issue I do agree with you. wouldn't it be great if we trained UK people to fill these tricky jobs...Sadly it takes 7 years to make a Doctor from a school leaver. There does not seem to be an appetite for investing in people en masse in this way and the pay off doesnt happen in a single parliament. Ukip are pro austerity right?

    How would Brexit affect the UK property market??? Impossible to answer. I think the ££ would suffer which would exert upward pressure on interest rates, It would also make UK property appear cheaper to foreign money.  The City would lose a lot of business to Frankfurt. Ireland would benefit from a lot of investment that would otherwise go to the UK (its English speaking, low corp tax rates + EU membership similar legal system and close by) its a no brainer.

    Capital and investment can move incredibly quickly to wherever the best return is and has no interest in artificial borders. If Britain is not in the EU why have a car plant here? You'd be insane not to stick it in a newly minted EU country.

    As a matter of principle and politics we would have to have some sort of EU trade deal there is no way on earth that the terms of that deal would be better than partnership.

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    Founder of Repolist Ltd, the UK's largest real time database of repossession and refurbishment properties.
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    There will definitely be a negative impact on the City of London. The majority of regulators within EU countries prefer their regulated entities to transact with other entities also regulated within the EU, ie they like their hedge funds to deal with banks and hedge funds from similar regulatory regimes to such an extent that there are more punitive risk measure taken for business transacted outside of the EU.

    In order to sidestep this we saw lots of non-EU banks and funds set up EU satellite offices in London due to language and tax benefits. If London is outside of the EU then these offices and their highly remunerated staff will end up in Luxembourg or Frankfurt. It was announced last week that Deutsche bank were considering repatriating their operations from London in the case of an EU exit.

    Of course it won't kill the city of London, but it will undoubtedly be negative for the financial centre with very few upsides. For Deutsche alone, that's 8,000 jobs, 8,000 empty London flats and 400,000 sq ft of empty office space.


    PS I know that history is re-written by the victors but I don't think 'Brown' ever tried to take the country into the euro, 5 tests and all that.
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    Bloody regulators eh! the basis of such 'risk' is that after EU 'long long exit' our regulatory environment changes? Except it doesn't and i don't forsee other regulators forcing the hand to vacate the world's largest financial centre If it's the same before and after the vote.

    The biggest risk is tariffs but we get a honeymoon period to sort.

    Your right about Brown! Tony did though? My point was more about the scare tactics Mind.

    @Paul I think there would be housing issue immigration or not. Would get calculator outhe but that's useless since we don't count in or out.
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