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(08-12-2015 03:35 AM)ipsy_dipsy Wrote: My open question is how to find them systematically. Through deep local knowledge, sheer experience and gut feeling???
Jonathan Clarke. http://www.buytoletmk.com
(08-12-2015 05:19 AM)Jonathan Clarke Wrote: (08-12-2015 03:35 AM)ipsy_dipsy Wrote: My open question is how to find them systematically. Through deep local knowledge, sheer experience and gut feeling???
I believe this to be the case. Its the ability to spot a gem and be in the right place at the right time and have also a combination and variety of associated and interlinked factors coming all together at once. This may occur sometimes frequently or infrequently. Rolf De Roos says the deal of the decade comes along every week. He is right. Your job is to seek out that deal though. That`s the hard part. But you have to have deep local knowledge to then become a specialist in house pricing. It is no coincidence that i have bought 7 properties in one street alone.
I dont buy at auctions but through estate agents and sometimes through private networks. You see this mis pricing all the time and my job as a vulture is to seek these odd gems out. It is 10 times more difficut now than when I started because now you have the internet and anyone can become an expert with relative ease. You just have to refine your art further though.
In 2012 I recall buying a four bed house for a bargain 100K through an agent. I couldnt understand why no one else had bought it. It yielded 12% . There was another virtually identical property though on the market at the same time being auctioned. Its guide price was only 75K. I knew my market though and knew 100K for mine was good value and went through to completion before the auction was held. Had I paid too much. The doubt crept in
I watched the auction price. It went for 101K in the end. My decision was vindicated.
Both were great bargains. That was in 2012. I`ve seen a similar one just go for 165K. That`s 65% growth in 3 years. That will do for me.
I would say yes be robotically systematic about your knowledge on your chosen subject matter. If you spread this too thinly countrywide there are not enough hours in the day to keep a handle on it in my view. Get too know 10 streets locally to you. Be a mastermind specialist in those 10 streets. No one will have as much knowledge about those streets as you then. You can use that to your advantage
Aim to be a mastermind specialist.
(08-12-2015 10:47 AM)Vanessa Warwick Wrote: Thanks for such an interesting and thoughtful post!
It does highlight why the anagram of auction is "caution".
The thing about auctions is that they have a hefty dose of emotion thrown in and this can make them very unpredictable.
It all depends who is in the room on the day and how much self-control they have imho.
People are known to get carried away.
I believe that auctions are for experienced investors only who know their area like the back of their hand, and have done INTENSE due diligence including getting the auction pack looked at by a solicitor.
Properties are put in auctions for many reasons, some of them legitimate, some of them sinister. The unwary can be easily caught out.
One trick sellers use is to put the property into an auction a long way away from where it is located, because they know the locals won't fall for it if it was in a local auction.
The vendor hopes that someone who hasn't done much DD will get carried away.
I think many auction houses published reports, but other than that, I don't really know of any other source of auction data.
(08-12-2015 02:37 PM)Landlord Geoff Wrote: ipsy_dipsy Wrote:
My open question is how to find them systematically. Through deep local knowledge, sheer experience and gut feeling???
Agreed.However, as individuals we all have differing opinions to VALUE. Jonathan had his and his experience won the day.
A few weeks ago I viewed a house with a guide of circa. 100K. Having viewed it, I decided I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. It sold for 140K at auction, plus the extras. You would need to ask the buyer how he/she reached that valuation.
Your example 2: It could be that the first sale did not complete and therefore was immediately put in the next auction (the history you show suggests 237K was crazy)
(08-12-2015 02:48 PM)ipsy_dipsy Wrote: I still think that even the most complex issue can be broken down to the series of very basic binomial choices. Effectively, by constructing and following this decision making tree it is possible for a machine to programmatically follow human logic and do it 1000 times better and faster. The real key question is how to get inside an expert's head and then unwind the logic of a decision making person (by reading and re-reading these posts, I guess).
(08-12-2015 07:06 PM)Jonathan Clarke Wrote: Doh . Sorry but I have to disagree . And sorry to have to say that after the nice things you said about me.
(08-12-2015 07:06 PM)Jonathan Clarke Wrote: I was once paid £100 an hour by a guy for him to get into my head to do what you want to do. He thought computer logic superceded human mindset. He made me sign a non disclosure agreement because he felt the answers i gave would be gold dust and assist him in developing this perfect property buying model from which he would make his own fortune.
(09-12-2015 12:06 AM)ipsy_dipsy Wrote: However, back to your point on sport I think there are thousands of better cricketers than Jimmy Anderson walking on the face of Earth. It's just they have never been given a chance, or they were born in a wrong country, etc. It's all about chances and our abilities and willingness to act on them.
(09-12-2015 11:36 AM)firstname.lastname@example.org Wrote: That does not make sense. One of the reasons Jimmy Anderson is so good is that he has had had the chance to practise a lot and gain experience. There may be thousands who have the potential to be better, but without the chance to learn they will be no where near as good.
(09-12-2015 12:06 AM)ipsy_dipsy Wrote: My apologies if I disappoint you, but I can't even think of partying with 100-quid-an-hour to pay for picking on your brain because I don't really need to. And the only reason why I believe I don't need to is because I'm already there, i.e. inside your head
But let's not underestimate the element of luck here because on the back of Jonathan's mind, I presume, he also keeps a warm thought that if today was 1990, then these +65% would have easily turned into more like -65%.
Vanessa Warwick Landlord and Co-Founder of PropertyTribes.com **If you have got value from Property Tribes, find out how you can support it in remaining a free to use community resource**
Full time Landlord in WestYorkshire, mentor and property education to new and inexperienced PRS investors. 25+ years of working knowledge. Accredited NLA member http://www.landlordgeoff.co.uk [color=#800080]
Aaron Cambden Director at Fairview Estates Residential Lettings & Sales. Property Investment. Letting Agents Nottingham