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  • Property Prices

    Carney warns - house price crash if no Brexit



    The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that in the event of a no deal Brexit, property prices could plummet by a third.

    Mark Carney told the Today programme on Friday that the Bank of England had run recent stress tests in the scenario of a no deal Brexit.

    As well as house price falls, interest rates would rise to 4% and unemployment would go up to 4% in a full-scale recession.

    Source article

    SEE ALSO  -        Where next for house prices?

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    I don’t know what the agenda is, there were similar warnings in advance of the referendum and nothing really changed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41859691

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    The agenda is to inform the blind of the possibility that things they cannot see might happen. It might help them prepare.

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    The BOE is suppose to be non political, the recent statements and those leading up to the referendum are / were designed to sway public opinion.

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    These (and the pre referendum ones) are intended to inform. NOT GIVING THE INFORMATION would be a political choice.

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    Then they should pass the information confidentially to the government and it’s for the government to make the information public.

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    I don't think the blind will see until it's too late - the level of delusion on display in this whole thread is staggering.

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    Irrespective of if you think the right course of action is to remain in or leave the EU it is not the BOE position to make statements that have a negative effect on the market and make it more difficult for the government to negotiate a Brexit deal.

    In negotiations why would you tell the people you are negotiating with that if you don’t agree a deal with us it will cause us significant financial difficulties, he is making statements which strengthen the EU’s position in negotiations, as I said earlier if that is the BOE’s view the information should be passed to the government confidentially.


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    2 delusions here :

    1) The BoE is independent of the government. Mr Carney has a statutory duty to warn the public about the dangers facing the economy and he's doing his duty.

    2) Do you really think the EU27 negotiators were not aware of how terrible a no deal would be for the UK ? He did not say anything that the UK government, the Eu27 governments, and market professionals were not already aware of. Only the English public is kept in the dark.

    You should ask yourself instead why the Leave clique and the UK government are trying to hide these bad news from the public.

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    More scaremongering.

    The UK needs to just leave with no deal at all.

    It can get by just fine without being hitched to a protectionist EU racket.

    I want a very hard Brexit.

    And I really care not about the bog Irish and their stupid border.

    If they wish to return to killing eachother let them.

    Personally I consider a United Ireland would be the best outcome.

    Then no border to be concerned with.

    Then we will see what a bankrupt institution the EU is.

    The EU is simply the Fourth Reich in sheep's clothing.

    The UK doesn't need a Fourth Reich to survive in a global economy.

    The sooner the UK leaves the better.

    Better to leave with no deal

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    In practice - any significant property price drop would mean that only distressed sellers would market their properties - and the paucity of choice in the market would then slowly bid up prices again over an unknown period.

    A tad over half of the 63% UK home owners are now mortgage free - and a large part of the remainder will have bought many yrs ago when prices were a fraction of today's - hence have very low LTV hence remaining eligible for best loan rates when remortgaging on expiry of fixed rate deals.

    Worst hit locations would be Midlands/North where many places are struggling to recover to pre Credit Crunch price levels.

    As ever "flight to quality" would apply - with decent family homes in good locations would fare best in any downturn.

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