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Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned ministers that a "no-deal" Brexit could see house prices crash by a third..
Briefing Theresa May and her top team in Downing Street, Mark Carney laid out three different scenarios the Bank believes could come to pass if Britain leaves the EU without a withdrawal agreement.
The worst case scenario would see Britain go into recession, a slump in the value of the pound and a crash in house prices.https://news.sky.com/story/mark-carney-n...d-11496950
Learn Change and Adapt ?????
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Its very annoying that the media do not understand or choose not to understand stress tests and take them as a prediction.
Luckily they didnt bother to read down to the reverse stress tests.
Anyway london flats are very overvalued as are some se houses in my view. If interest rates hit 4% could see them dropping 30% which would pring the p/e ratio down to a crazily low 10.5... Close to the long term average
These forecasts are bollocks. Project hysteria now, not project fear. That clown Carney may as well have said that the air will be unbreathable and the English Channel will dry up. This is laughable now.
Mr Carneys prediction if we voted Leave was completely wrong so why does anyone listen to him. In Jan 2017 he admitted he got it wrong and said Brexit was no longer the biggest risk to UK financial stability.
Carney is nothing more than a puppet of the state. He's just championing "Project Fear" because it's his "job".
Funny am listening to a UKIP member saying exactly the same as you on the radio right now.
If Carney is a puppet who are his puppet masters? It's nonsense. He's a professional qualified economic expert who has never shown partiality and now is coming under fire from the government, the government controlled BBC News and vulture Jacob Rees Mogg who wants a recession because that's how his father taught him to make money.
Maybe you see similar opportunities, if so that's your business. But peddling this Project Fear theory is head-in-the sand double speak extraordinaire - in my opinion
If I bought a lottery ticket I COULD win &10.000.000. But I’m not ordering the yacht just yet. In case my predictions are wrong like.
And if I was buying a x-million pound yacht I'd do some analysis on the worst case scenario on it's depreciation for sure. It's worst case scenario analysis, that's not a prediction
Mr Carney and the civil service are consistent. They use models which are consistently accurate in their own terms but wrong unfortunately. Those who do degrees in Economics / econometrics can predict only that the assumptions in modelling are always abstracted from reality and winds of change always blow you adrift of where you think you'll end up. We're as likely to be better off / as well off as we are to be worse off. Self determination has more to do with it than a political dimension.
So if we think on our feet, act like decent human beings and take account of fundamentals like wages, interest rates, returns and cash flows, we can be like any other business.
I'll make one prediction - which I'll bet my house on .... after we leave the EU on 29 March 2019, the sun will rise on the 30th March 2019 and people will go to work on the following Monday etc as they always have done. Of course, the Monday after is April 1st so who knows :-)
I recently heard the coming couple of years described as an "acquisition stage". Not having psychic powers but believing there are several reasons why we'll probably see some kind of correction, I'll be putting my energies into lining up my sources of deposits.
Didn't Carney say pretty much the same thing a couple of months ago and wasn't the cause then his prediction of interest rate hikes?
All the best
Carney's job is supposed to be non political. He has blotted his record several times by making heavily political predictions about Brexit and they have all proved to be unfounded.
The housing market is widely predicted to be due a down turn but the reasons are many and none of them linked to Brexit. To predict something that everybody believes will happen anyway and then attribute it to Brexit at this time is transparently political