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  • Property-a-holics

    Effects of Brexit on housing demand

    That's a million fewer people needing homes from one nationality alone.

    It's hard to see this not having a significant impact on the housing market.

    It's going to massively rock the supply/ demand balance, particularly in areas with high concentrations of unskilled EU migrants. Clearly we should be focussing our investments on areas with strong demand: areas of strong concentrations on predominantly British professionals, student towns.

    In addition, service industries will struggle as they are no longer able to recruit for the jobs the British consider beneath them.

    Whatever you think of EU migrants, most of them are good, willing workers. Brexit seems certain to undermine that economic sector. (Reburbs and maintenance seem likely to become a thorn in the flesh for us - the construction industry is already struggling to recruit in some areas).

    My question is: to what extent does the community see this all effecting the rental market and property prices? Do you believe it will send shock waves through the wider market, and where and in what ways?

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    All the best

    Andy

    I saw the same report last night on the BBC and found it highly biased.

    I am not sure that it is the case that British people think those jobs are beneath them.  I think it is more that migrants are willing to work for much lower wages.  Once the ready supply of migrants dries up, British businesses will have to offer higher rates of pay, which is only fair and will be good for the economy.

    Of course, there will be some fall out of businesses that were only sustainable because they paid such low wages, so those kind of businesses will go to the wall, but well managed and sustainable ones will continue.

    There will be a period of "shaking out", but ultimately what comes out of the shake-up will be stronger imho.

    Those renting to migrants, such as HMOs in poor towns, may find the supply of tenants drying up, as we are already starting to hear, but those with good quality professional tenants in strong economic areas should not be affected.

    ​It's the big shake-down!

    Related topics:

    BrExit - impact on property market

    Carney warns - house price crash if no Brexit

    Brexit causing property market stagnation

    House prices up 7.3% since Brexit vote

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    Couldn't agree more,  free movement is all about moving cheap labour around.

    If businesses can't sustain paying a living wage,  they shouldn't be in business. Incidentally I think the Tax Credit system is a sham for the same reason,  low wages paid as government will top it up, whilst business owner drives a 50k Audi (this example is a recent client of mine). Ergo, the taxpayer are contributing to the chaps Audi.

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    - As far as I'm aware there is a National minimum wage set by the UK government; businesses that under pay are breaking the law and should be brought to justice.

    - I'm not convinced that this myth of low paid workers will go away any time soon, what might happen is that it will cause a swap of the type or origin of the migrants (intra-EU Vs extra-EU), that's all.  Putting a blanket cap of 30K may hurt certain sectors, farming growing fruit / veg that need pickers.. This may cause these farmers to shift over their business in countries with lower labour cost (Romania for example).  Rather than increasing wages certain manufacturing plants may start to invest more in Robots, this is already happening elsewhere in Europe where labour costs are down...

    - A recent ONS report on the projected future growth of household numbers has revised all the figures down; meaning that the infamous 300,000 homes required in the next few years is not a correct figure.... would this have an impact on investors / landlords?




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    Interesting population statistic from my days at the DH, 2010 became the 1st Year the UK had more people over the age of 65 than under 21.

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    I suspect there is, or will be, a shortage of property suitable for the over-65s (step-free etc) so might that be a business opportunity for LLs? Radio 4 often features commentary about older people who want to downsize but can't find anywhere suitable in their locality. That would also free-up 'family' homes for younger families to move into..

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    As has been reported on PT, the humble bungalow is on life support as few are being built these days!

    The assisted living sector seems to be getting bigger though, but I'm not sure there's many people who look forward to moving into a home.

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    hi Adam, You are correct there was chat about bungalows here on PT fairly recently.

    I'm not referring to a 'home' in the nursing home sense (sorry if I misunderstood you!) but to seniors needing to downsize to more suitable accommodation. Fewer bedrooms with (some) disabled features built-in or the potential to build them in. This includes wide door frames in case of wheelchair access need in future; step-free access; long-handled taps for arthritic hands; a wet room instead of a bath.

    The latest description is 'independent living' and is aimed at ages from 60.

    I know that people don't always want to think about these things and would rather believe they will live forever, but there are those who plan for this and make the change when they are fit and able to do it

    Many seniors live in the family home and reach a point where they cannot get up the stairs, just to take one example.

    Apologies- I am rather straying off the Brexit topic

    best wishes


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    Last data I saw (Bupa Care Homes review) said we have 580,000 in Care Homes - less than 5% of the over 65 pop - with 90% of the Care Home residents being over age 75.

    Bupa flagged that Care Sector overall loses 2/3rds of staff every 2 yrs so are constantly recruiting.

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    Agreed - though downsizing (space wise) from a 3 bed semi to say a 2 bed bungalow may well cost more as bungalows are short on supply and have a price premium.

    Many retirees as we see on property shows say they want to downsize money wise - but then complain about lack of space...

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    I had a seasoned landlord ring me yesterday to enquire whether there was a family market for his current 6 bed HMO.  He said that he had spoken to quite a few student landlords who had not managed to fill rooms. 

    Even if you are not a student landlord, I think this will impact you as these landlords will be looking for employed tenants instead which will bring more competition to an already over saturated local HMO market. 

    We still have quite a few student and professional HMO's rooms available that we have not been able to let.

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