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I drive around the streets I have done business in for over 30 years
I like to think I am knowledgeable on my own patch But I am seeing something I have not witnessed before
I have seen a number of crashes over the past 30 years but I get a feeling this is very different
The thing I have noticed more than any other time is Stagnation I see Property sitting on the market for years which Landlords would have purchased and made a good yield in the past
I have a friend who flips property and he is having a problem selling on property he has refurbished to a good standard and he is dropping prices as we blogg
I can see new builds selling with the help of Help to Buy one estate close to me was sold out very quickly
I asked my self why this was the way
I looked again in the streets I do Business in and a strange thing came to mined since the crash of 2007 I would say every property that was purchased was purchased by a Landlord
My conclusion is this Landlords since 2007 have been the main Buyers FTB have been few and far between since 2007 and even today
The issue I see now is Landlords are not buying in fact Property is being sold by some landlords and its not selling
I fully realise I operate in a very small area and the market is not just one area
I can see the stagnation growing by the day Property that's on the market is not selling and owners are not placing new property on the market because they see the stagnation
Vanessa blogged this morning about price falls and I can see this happening now too
I think in general the UK has been driven by cheap money and overseas investment and Migration to the UK
The three factors are changing
The SE has an affordability issue while the North doesn't But stagnation is coming to both areas
The old crashes were normally because of Interest rises but now we are seeing something very different and when rates came down the market moved up once again
Today its different I can see the longest period of stagnation entering the market now
I think the SE will see a huge correction because what I call home grown FTB cant afford the prices of the SE
The North I see similar but not as bad because we have affordability but the FTB just don't buy old stock
The only market I can see which has faired well is the 3 bed ex council houses which have been super investments 75k in 2007 150k today
My honest opinion is if Landlords had not bought up the houses after the crash the Price of property would still sit at the same value
The loss of the Landlord buyer market should not be underestimated we have been the UK property market for some time now we have stopped buying we are seeing the results
Learn Change and Adapt ?????
All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.
An recent article suggests that landlords are influencing house prices:Housing UK: Average asking prices barely rise as landlords abandon the property market
Vanessa Warwick Landlord and Co-Founder of PropertyTribes.com **If you have got value from Property Tribes, find out how you can support it in remaining a free to use community resource**
As we discussed recently DL - I believe LLs became the lower rung of property ladder since 2000 in SE.
Clearly if LLs stop buying - and 80% drop in new PRS investment flags that is the case - then it does herald stagnation - maybe replicating the 5 yrs stagnation in early 1990s after penultimate crash.
Hindsight is the only 20/20 vision - so it is anyone's guess how prices pan out over next 5/10 yrs.
This will be very interesting indeed
if you think about this if inflation is running at 3% and we have stagnation in five years that 15% drop in real terms if we had a fall in prices of 3%
its a 30% drop in real terms
very different times but it will help the FTB as they replace landlords
In SE back in 1990s we saw 20/25% price drop in very early 1990s.
From around 1995 we then had price growth at around 15% cagr - hence doubling by 2000 (in nominal terms).
In real terms allowing for inflation it was post 2000 before we regained the pre crash peak price level - though by 1998 nominal prices were regained.
Noteworthy is we had no mortgage drought in 1990s - which we did have in 2007/08 etc post Credit Crunch - and with MMR since 2013 residential lending is pretty constrained via the core affordability criteria.
That combo suggests that wages will be a far more significant factor in property price growth for the foreseeable future.
Wage growth is now the key to capital growth I agree
If what DL sees locally is rolled out across the UK, that means FTB'ers are just buying the new and shiny, and no-one is buying the older, possibly needing work properties which LL's used to focus on? I get the feeling a % of FTB'ers have no intention of picking up a paintbrush when it comes to their first property?
I literally gutted mine, and 2 years later (+ healthy market) I got £75k more for it to move onto the next rung. Moving up the rung doesn't seem to be happening so much this side of the millenium, with those that have moved into 2 bed houses converting them to 4 bed houses and never moving on (as what is happening in my area).
I don't know if it's because people don't like giving money to the Govt. in terms of stamp duty etc. etc. but times have certainly changed and I can see why the property market is in such a strange limbo at the moment, let along adding in IR rises, good old Brexit and other factors.
I think if I look at the younger generation they can’t do DIY
dont forget woodwork and metalwork lessons have not been taut at schools for generations
so FTB are buying new
the market has changed I am sure of that
I happen to be a (waiting) FTB. I reckon you've both got the wrong end of the stick. Most first time buyers ARE happy to pick up a paintbrush, providing the house is cheap enough to warrant it. Properties that need extensive redecoration are often not much cheaper in my experience. New houses are more affordable. Theres no way I could get a 3 bed semi on the "used" market, yet with HTB there are plenty of new ones within reach.Even if you can afford the used house, (which many can't), why bother redecorating a knackered old house if its barely any cheaper than a nice one, or there's a brand new one down the road for the same price per month. The bottom rung of slightly tatty old houses in reasonable areas has largely disappeared.
But older houses are a lot cheaper. As I posted yesterday:
Cheapest old house available in Tameside - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for...84923.html
Cheapest new home available in Tamesidee - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for...84367.html
The new house might be better but it costs a lot more. Yes you would need to spend on renovating the older one, but you would probably get some profit from that.
Or for similar money to the new home you could go for something like - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for...html I have a similar ex-council house nearby that I bought forr £80k in 2013.
The first link doesm't worl anymore - there has been an offer on the property - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for...84923.html
Old houses may be cheaper but they are less affordable. Mainly thanks to HTB.