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House prices would fall by 35 per cent over three years after a chaotic no-deal Brexit, according to a stark briefing given to the cabinet by the Bank of England governor yesterday.
Mark Carney told senior ministers that spiralling mortgage rates would cause a crash in the housing market.
I am looking to get on the property ladder - would it be wise waiting until what we know will happen Brexit wise or take advantage of the current uncertainty?
Does anybody else feel that in reality Brexit is going to be a real "nothing to see here" for property, regardless of how it plays out? I remember working in the city in the run up to Y2K and if I remember rightly it was pretty much going to be the end of the world. Hmm.
I do kind of remember that James but I wouldn't be prepared to bet my house on Brexit being another Y2K non-event. I see no advantage to buying now after almost a decade of rising prices.
But if we all actually believed that a 35% fall was a real possibility, we would all be rushing to sell now. Really it's buy, sell or hold. I agree I would be very careful about buying, but I won't be rushing to sell up either.
Time will tell. How I wish I could have a glimpse of 2028 now!
I don't think 'we all actually believed that a 35% fall was a real possibility' but I think most people agree that a fall of some sort over the coming years is probably more likely than any significant rises like those seen over recent years. Plus, even those that did think that a 35% fall is a possibility may not be rushing to sell now either. Buying and selling property is a costly business and getting back in at the bottom, as many claim they will do after any significant fall is not always an option. Lower house prices are often lower due to the reduction of available credit (banks scared to lend etc) so in reality, the same things that have stopped everyone else buying are likely to be the very things that stop you buying back in. Being a landlord is a long term game, ride out the peaks and troughs if you're already in the market but try to avoid buying in at the top.
"The best time to buy is now" is a bit of a seminar cliche in my opinion.
"You can't buy houses in the past" - Agreed
"You can't buy houses in the future" - Not so sure I agree with that one..
Many people I know are IT professionals who worked tirelessly in the run-up to Y2K to fix all the problems that would have caused chaos if not tackled. It was know about and tackled well in advance and plans put in place to deal with it. Exactly like our government, er, hasn't. But then, who needs experts?
I was one such IT professional. I know of many problems that were fixed. For example one that would have stopped all benefit payments in NI. I was on call on the night and had a call from a customer in Portugal at 8pm. Y2K was not a non-event, It was a real issue that needed to be publicised so that people would spend the money to get it fixed in advance, which is mostly what happened. One system on the Hong Kong Stock exchange failed, but was fixed by the following day.
It wasn't the first time such an issue had happened, and will not be the last. The next big one is likely to be 2038. We were asked to fix a Y10k bug in our software (by a nuclear power plant).
But Y2K was a technical issue. Brexit is political and legal so not as easily solved by logical thinking.
V difficult to time the bottoms and tops of markets. Get stuck in, if the figures stack up, imho.
The best time to buy is always now. Nobody can time the market. Can't see it happening but if it does I'll hoover up some bargains.
I am buying now, on the basis that yield is good. If rents were to fall I’d be very concerned. If house prices fall, I hold enough cash to remortgage from a negative equity position. I think the key is to hold some cash, and fix your mortgages - ideally with staggered remortgage dates.
If there are opportunities to buy and I can maintain a buffer, then brilliant!
In 15 years prices will be much higher than they are now.
Would say depends on where you are thinking of buying and what as well.
London particulatly flats probably has more risk than outside of a hard Brexit than say northern towns