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I always said we would have stagnation in the SE and this article shows it happening
If we have stagnation and things don't sell Vendors will drop prices futher
This will possibly bring a Crash in London
Learn Change and Adapt ?????
All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.
I can see many reasons why a crash* won't come to pass. Brexit if of course a massive threat to all of us, not just in terms of property, but to the economy as a whole, however, regardless of crashing out of the EU without a deal, I believe that a) demand for housing will not cease, and b) people have far too much cash tied up in their properties (residential) that they will be loath to lower the prices.The result is likely to be that of the credit crunch; the market for buying and selling seizes, sales agents will suffer, there'll be stagnation (as we've already seen in that BBC article you linked to earlier) but ultimately no crash.And when the storm's blown over... I'm of course talking about the London market, I don't have an interest in the UK market as a whole, so can't comment on that. Sorry, of course, obviously not intending to sound arrogant or anything, I just happen to live in London.
I would agree with you if we were only talking about home ownership
90% of the BTL market is in the SE
Landlords will be forced to sell because they are highly leveraged and low yielding properties and there tax bills will rise
If this 20% shifts and starts selling it could cause a crash
This is why I think Stagnation will be the best hope But a crash could happen due to the knock on effect of BTL in the SE
That is a fascinating statistic DL, can I please ask where you got the information from so I can have a read into it further? I didn't realise that BTL was mainly in the SE, I assumed it was spread throughout the UK. Many thanks.
She got it from the same place as "S24B" she has a very vivid imagination. Never let the facts get in the way of a good doom and gloom story.
The problem is that "demand" requires the buyer to be both willing *and able* to stump up they purchase price. itis a function of available credit. As prices stagnate, lenders can no longer be as sure of getting their money back if they need to repossess at some point in the future. This will result in a repricing of interest rates on their mortgages (to reflect the increased risk).
In fact, it is hard to see how a crash cannot come about, especially if we go into recession. Add into that landlords selling up en masse, first time buyers effectively priced out in many areas and you've got a right old mess.
This is New to the London Market
we have never left the EU before
And when George Osborne made his new rules BRTEX was never dreamed of
it makes me wonder would we still have S24 ect if they had know the route the UK would take
You claim to have been an ifa but still don't understand the new tax rules. You claim to not want capital growth but spend seemingly several hours a day trying to find out if the south is going to suffer and then revel in any tenuous links to that you find. I'm amazed you ever got started, clearly you were very lucky to ever survive. Fortunately most 8f us recognise risks and invest with them in mind and don't whine about every day when our mistakes are exposed.
I'm sorry to sound harsh but you are very very boring now.
Wow mark22 my thoughts entirely.I think there should be a wall between DL,s North and our South..DL can build it and we will pay for it
I will not even comment about your remarks
Mark I think you are harsh
I was an IFA in the 1980/90
I became a landlord in 1982 and I have quite a lot of experience and I have been a full time landlord since 2000
I watch the BTL market because its my living Some folk find my comments helpful and I have met a great number of Landlords over the years who are worried and concerned about the S24
I think I understand them quite well and I have set up a company and looked at every aspect of trying to get around the new Tax Rules
The SE is very important in the terms of the Housing Market The SE holds the lions share of BTL I think around 90% and the measures taken by the Govt are SE centric
There is huge shortage of housing in the SE and S24 PRA Stamp Duty are being used to force Landlords out of the sector If you think my views is wrong that is fine
As regard to Capital Growth when I set out on the Road of a Property Investor I only ever wanted income Capital Growth was only a side issue nice if it happened of course
Because I have no intention of selling any property I own
I run quite a Large Business 50% bought before the crash in 2007 has made a lot of money in capital growth The property I purchased after 2007 has made next to No Capital Growth
My Business makes high yields enough money for me to live very well and enough money for me to buy property with cash
The Lack of growth works well when I want to sell into my company ie no CGT
I would say this to you Mark Don't Judge a persons success alone by the blogs they write you have never met me
I give an over view A NE landlord and I give my opinions as I see the future of our sector
I will always write blogs If you don't want to read them that's fine I don't have an issue with that
I know I get up the noses of some Because I write about the negatives of BTL
But Balance is a good thing I am not into the Back Slapping get rich thing which the BTL world is famous for
I am happy to plod my own course and share my experience
I wish you the best of luck