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  • Property Prices

    Markets are moving -as they say "All change"

    I ask the experienced Landlords - combined this with Section 24 - is it time to sell up NOW or wait for slow crash to unfold?

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/m...ct-deepens

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0...-12032018#

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    The question I would ask a SE Landlord is do you see Capital Growth in the future

    The  future of course is as long as you want to make it

    But If I were a SE Landlord sitting on high capital values and large profits I would have sold when Osborne Law came to town

    So yes sell now and get out

    As S24 hits more and more Landlords will realise what's happening and more property will come to the market

    Get out now take the cash and run.

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

    The question I would ask a SE Landlord is do you see Capital Growth in the future

    > Yes I certainly do.

    The  future of course is as long as you want to make it

    > If prices increase year on year by just 2% as per recently it will still be good.

    But If I were a SE Landlord sitting on high capital values and large profits I would have sold when Osborne Law came to town

    > But you're not, never have been, and probably never will be! Just like I will never be a northern LL.

    So yes sell now and get out

    > That logic is based on no knowledge of any markets in the SE!

    As S24 hits more and more Landlords will realise what's happening and more property will come to the market

    > You're under-estimating the amount of money there is sloshing around in the SE. It is a VERY rich area of the country, with some VERY rich people. People for whom S24, CGT, mortgages etc. are just someone elses problem.

    Get out now take the cash and run.

    > And do what with it? Stick it into pensions? Seriously, the only 'investment' that could bring anything like the returns a lot of people have been experiencing with good investments (and continue to experience) in the SE is with something risky like an AIM portfolio.

    Sorry DL, but sometimes you talking about the SE is like me talking about the northern markets.

    I'm sure you realise that people who have got rich in the SE with property has been because of the property and manipulating it in various ways? There aren't many £100K properties in the SE any more!

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    It is a widely held belief that you buy when others are selling

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    I always purchased when others were in fear in the past

    I am not sure we are in the same place as years ago

    BTL is just like any other market  But Its so political now and hated

    I feel we are dealing with a lot of uncertainty (What will the Govt do next )

    That's my issue with BTL

    So I am just sitting watching and not buying anything until I get the right feeling regarding govt policy

    we never had Osborne law in the past and who is to say we wont have more from Labour when they come to power

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.


    Whatever the widely held belief is, history would seem to indicate you should buy when other people are not (gold, around the time Gordon Brown flogged ours for example - it trebled), and sell before other people do. 

    I called London top in April 2016 and would have sold months before then if I was holding any. If I had a portfolio to get shot of I'd have started in early 2015 when it became abundantly clear that government stimulus and market props were set to "overdrive" to create a false homeowner feel good factor to swing the election. 

    I am naturally cautious, so I know I would have been clearing out early and selling into a still rising market. I offloaded a lot of property & development related shares some time ago including (thank God) Carrillion. I'm down to British Land unit trust which is a long term hold.

    One index is reporting London down -15% im 12 months and the recent headline coverage of property schemes in the north falling apart and scalping Hong Kong investors is yet to really play out in the market.

    Anybody still holding London property has hung on 6-12 months too long already as I see it.

    I won't entertain buying anything until Property Tribes is full of tales of actual woe. I'm sat on a small war chest ready to play, but bailing out distressed sellers at current prices would be the height of foolishness. This is really just getting started in my view.

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    In 1992 at the tender age of 20 I bought my first 1 bed flat for £52,000. People said I was mad and would be better of renting, I kept it, now worth £250,000 and rental income of £1000 a month

    In 1999 at the not so tender age of 27 I bought my second 1 bed flat for £88,000. People said prices could not go any higher, I kept it, and now worth £240,000 and rental income £970 a month

    in 2006 at the not so tender age of 34 I bought my 1st 3 bed semi new build for £250,000. People said a crash was round the corner and we were at peak prices, I kept it and its now worth £425,000 with a rental income of £1400 a month.

    In 2012 I bought my second 3 bed semi for £290,000. People said I was mad and to quit whilst I was ahead, I kept it and its now worth £440,000 with a rental income of £1450

    In 2015 at the old age of 43 I bought my first  4 bed detached house for £429,000, people said prices could not possibly go higher, i kept it now worth £520,000 its its un-refurbished state.

    In 2017 I received planning permission for a 4 bed detached in the garden of the above property with an estimated worth of £650,000 both will be turned into flats or HMO's with a rental potential of £5-7000 per month for both propeties

    My point is that there will always be obstacles, things to worry about, naysayers, global problems, reasons for a crash, housepricecrash trolls (who are monitoring this thread), interest rate rises, hard to get credit etc etc etc etc.  Sure there will always be peaks and troughs in the UK housing market but anyone betting on house prices being lower in 5,10, 20 years time will be, imo, kicking themselves. History doesn't always repeat itself but i'll bet it does.

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    It’s generally possible to match changes with increases in HPI - EU immigration, two incomes for mortgages, self certification, BTL, lowest interest rates, quantitative easing, help to buy etc.  How many more favourable changes can there be and what happens when some of the above are reversed - if they are.  Some of us believe you can only kick the can down the road for so long plus it is only the SE that has seen the big HPI which can cloud judgement.

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    Property is like a  Mexican wave which rolls around a  stadium

    There are world waves , country waves, regional waves, city waves, estate waves, street waves

    Timing of these waves is difficult but eminently possible if you do triple  DD and give it the time it deserves

    London will come back and stand up once again when the wave comes back around

    London is the nearest definition to property stability as one can ever expect to get in my lifetime

    The question is do you sit still patiently,  buy a few units and wait for the next wave

    Or do you leave the stadium

    Personally I sit still buy a few units and wait for the next wave because I`m a lazy son of a b***h

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    Jonathan Clarke. http://www.buytoletmk.com

    London property went into the stratosphere with sustained double digit YOY rises well ahead of any increases in UK spending power on a wave of foreign money - that has more characteristics of a bubble/mania than stability.

    Rent is set from incomes/benefits. With no prospect of these rising to meet prices, yields have plummeted. Stability, or stupidity?

    On my occasional forays to PT, I am often minded to point out that the BoE MPC paper on BTL called out with statistical evidence that increased IO lending in the BTL sphere has a direct correlation to property overvaluation. 

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    Stability long term . Rocky short term .

    Bubbles always occur. So do corrections and also  over corrections 

    Incomes are important yes  as an indicator  but because of foreign money  inherited wealth , different jobs market

    the traditional income multipliers don`t apply so much I feel

    What will a million pound London  property today be worth in 25 years  is the question for me

    If its worth  2 million then that`s fine even if it has to go  down to 750K at some point during that period

    Investors are getting more and more sophisticated and there are a great deal more today than there were in 2008

    They will bide their time . Then when the buds appear again  they will pile in like there is no tomorrow

    Markets recover

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    Jonathan Clarke. http://www.buytoletmk.com