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  • Property Prices

    Nationwide's UK house prices: 1975 - 2018

    Taken from an 'Interesting discussion on Citywire' DL recently posted, this was reply #15 gives overview of Nationwide Building Society UK house prices adjusted for Inflation 1975 - 2018.

    Thought worth an independent post for those that may read the main thread.

    The general perception is that house prices have risen consistently for a long time.

    However, have a look at the Nationwide inflation-adjusted index since 1975 here:

    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/Main...lation.xls

    (note that it's an excel file, not a web page). They choose to fit a trend with a constant growth rate of 2.6%, but what I see is a bit different.

    I'd suggest that from 1975 to about 1998 the real price was more or less flat at around £100k, aside from a big boom and bust centered on 1989.

    There was then a much bigger boom up to 2006 followed by a partial bust which left prices around £200k, where they've remained since, so in real terms basically all the gains came in less than a decade in the late 90s and early 2000s.

    To a large extent that was driven by falling interest rates, but rates are now rising ...

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    I am no expert

    but my view is property inflation is driven by a number of things

    lending

    confidence

    wage inflatipn

    intrest rates

    i belive the next 30 years will be a very different set of figs from the past 30 years

    most areas in the uk have not recovered since 2007 crash

    the SE bubble had large imagratipn and a lot of overseas cash comming in

    I think the EU question is a major one and it can’t be answered easily 

    but I know one thing I don’t think we will see a doubleing in price for a very very long time

    I was at a landlord event on Friday and most landlords think like me the BTL party is over if your leverageing


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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.


    Hi, maybe I'm missing the point slightly, but isn't it only an issue if your leveraged with little cash flow and a hope of capital gain?

    I am leveraged with 70% mortgages, but aim for approx 300pcm positive cash flow per property, so basically I have tax  to pay on the gain now, understand that with tax changes my bill will go up a bit but my mortgage interest cost is on average 170 pcm of which I can offset 20% directly off the tax bill, so yes it's an increase but isn't going to wipe out my profit.

    Or am I calculating this completely wrongly?

    Ps.vi am already a 40% tax payer so changes aren't going to affect my MTR

    Andy

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    Slowly working towards financial freedom


    I agree, I don't think we'll see the price increases from late 80's early 00's again anytime soon.

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    It would be interesting to superimpose real UK wages from 1975 on the Nationwide real HPs.

    But that would need a reliable inflation index...

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