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  • Property-a-holics

    Population decline

    "The fertility rate in the UK is 1.7. Most population growth in the UK today is the result of international immigration, according to the Office of National Statistics. Without immigrants, Great Britain would eventually enter an era of population decline."

    How do people feel about the potential for serious declines in population after 2050, only 30 years from now? What will happen to house prices as a result? If you are in your 30s and 40s, that might be the precise time you are looking to make use of the income from rent, equity release, capital growth and if there is a decline in population - or event the narrative of it - what impact will that have on the market?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/j...es-decline

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    Life is what happens to you while you are busy making other plans.  - John Lennon and others.

    Therefore don't worry about tomorrow, because tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.   Matthew 6:34

    I've spend my life worrying about things that might happen.  98% of them never did.


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    I thought the population was increasing.

    But if it was decreasing maybe I would get onto the first tube as opposed to the 5th.

    Seriously though, there will always be areas that attract people and ones that don’t.
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    London's population is dropping already.

    I think we are starting to see remote working finally kick in for white collar workers (which is most of the well paid jobs in London).

    I know a lot of people (even C-level and directors in medium/large companies) who now work remote 50%+ of the time, e.g. living in Peak District with their family and spending 3 days in a hotel or small flat in London.

    London is past it's prime IMO (and I'm a Londoner who still lives in London). I also know mid level people (e.g. in sales) who now work almost 100% remote even for large companies like SAP.

    There's a similar trend in the US where people are abandoning San Fran and NYC for "second tier" cities such as Austin, Denver, and Portland. I know this because I run a software company with offices in the US.
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    I recently advertised a 1 bed flat to rent in zone 3, I had 35 applicants in 1 day. Then I took it off, it was getting silly.

    If I only get half the demand or even 25%, I’m still ok with it.

    Funnily enough I rented it to a couple working in IT who work remotely! They still wanted to live quite centrally.
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    The population of the UK is ever increasing. UK fertility rates are but one figure, as immigration is more than bolstering the figures upwards.

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    A long term issue is reality. Europe is hardly running at a replacement level excluding immigration but look at Singapore wih a birth rate of 1.1 it will potentially see its population fall by 50% in 25 years. China' one child policy , though reversed is the norm this has been further stressed with gender selection creating a furher imbalance. China has the 4;2;1 whereby one child supports 2 parents and 4 grandparents, this will happen like a cliff edge which is why China long term is not a problem in reality.

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    China has a much bigger problem and that is the ratio of men to women. By 2020 there will be 30/35 million men of marrying age than women.  As the staying goes when more men than women are born then the next generation will face a war. Dangerous times ahead for the current young generation.

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    The same applies throughout Europe pp Sweden to name one country.

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    A long term fall in population to more sustainable levels has to be a good thing surely?

    The effect on house prices is but one part of the equation, what about pollution and climate change etc?

    Hopefully the population will also begin to fall in the most highly populated countries as well as otherwise mass movements from one continent to another will continue to grow, which benefits nobody in the long term.

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    All comments are made in good faith and are given to the best of my knowledge and experience but I would advise you to consult an expert before making important decisions and I accept no liability for comments made.

    Most are missing the point. Population growth in Europe is going up. How, why- well its down to immigration. Governments lost control of their borders and used the population levels as an excuse to have more people enter the country. The real concern is that the birth rates among these immigrants is growthing at a fast rate than the local population. This has major implications in the future as certain communities will be under pressure as other communities take control.  example by 2040 Swedes will become a minority people in their own country. What this means is future landlords ( if they still are around -due to govt's policies) will have to cater for a very different type of tenant and their needs taking into consideration living habits and religious requirements. Every one should read " The Strange Death of Europe " by Douglas Murray before even thinking of becoming the next generation of Landlords.

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