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  • Property-a-holics

    Property Market Debate

    Hi Guys.

    Im hoping to get an interesting debate going.

    Where would one find actual demographics detailing property market movements in real time?

    Im always checking values on right move & Zoopla as a general guideline to find BMV's.

    I'm in the North West and its becoming often that the area i search in has dropped over the last 12 months 2% or so. Increasingly over the last 4 quarters consecutively. (according to Zoopla)

    It's a bit concerning.

    What do you guys think is happening right now in the property market in terms of sale values and why?

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    Real time? Lol. Unfortunately all data about housing is out of date before its published.


    The only way way to get a feel for what’s going on is to get out see properties and talk to agents, make a few offers and see when they start to stick.


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    Uncertainty around Brexit seems to be making potential buyers hold off - hence price falls.

    London market overheated and needed correction to factor in extortionate SDLT - and that ripples out.

    MMR since 2013 is very limiting on lending.

    Nationally average FTB borrows just 3.11 x earnings of £38k with 24% deposit - so they earn 27% of purchase price.

    Over past 40 odd yrs we see wage growth halving in each decade since peaking in the 1970s.

    Since 2000 or so - LLs have usurped the FTB first rung of ladder - but now LLs are largely avoiding new investment (80% drop in new investment over past 12/18 months) after tax hikes.

    Conclusion - FTBs are constrained by low wages and cannot save deposits - while LLs are not buying - and without buyers feeding at bottom of market few second/third steppers can move as chain is deadlocked.

    On all that one can superimpose the massive transaction charges for middle/top of market - which persuades many home owners who want/need more space to extend or convert loft - for same or less money than moving to bigger place. Net result is fewer affordable places for those in lower priced homes to move up to.

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    Its quite interesting what is happening with REITs. Even ones which were trading at a premium to net asset value now have some pretty steep discounts. Would expect to see it from shopping centre owners etc but now also seeing it in the warehouse REITS. Suggestions are that land itself in the SE is somewhat overvalued at the moment and hence the land banks a lot of these REITS are sitting on waiting for development might have to be impaired.

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