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  • Property-a-holics

    Property market predictions for 2019



    As the eventful year of 2018 draws to a close, I thought it might be interesting to start curating some of the predictions coming in with respect to what will happen in the market and sector in 2019 and beyond.

    Of course, with Brexit uncertainty, we really are in unchartered waters, so it will be interesting to look back in 5 years time and see which of the below predictions came true!

    Mortgage market

    "Mortgaged buy to let purchases will plummet 23 per cent by the end of 2023". 

    Rental market 

    Rents are predicted to grow 13.7 per cent in the next five years according to a forecast by Savills.

    Alongside a fairly bleak prediction for the sales market between 2019 and the end of 2023, Savills says the rental market will continue to see strong demand, not least because of ongoing difficulties for buyers to obtain mortgages.

    London property market:

    Rents will rise by 15.9 per cent over the next five years, according to Savills.

    Full/source article

    Northern property market to outperform London

    All of the above from Savills.

    House prices and sales across Greater London — stifled for the past three years — are set to enjoy a “Brexit bounce-back” as soon as Britain leaves the European Union at the end of March, experts are predicting.

    Following a long period in which sluggish wage growth, stretched family budgets and political uncertainty have battered buyer confidence, there appears at last to be some good news.

    The average price of a new-build home in Zones 1 and 2 is expected to jump 17.6 per cent between Brexit and 2023, according to housing market forecaster JLL in figures published today.

    The consultant group anticipates a 15.3 per cent rise in prices at the luxury end of the market in central London and 14.3 per cent across the wider Greater London area over five years, triggered by Britain finally leaving the EU next year.

    Full/source article

    Interest rates

    We have also already had the prediction of two interest rate rises in 2019:

    Two interest rate rises predicted in 2019

    Please also share your predictions for 2019!

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    The perfect storm is causing a mass exit by London based investors, next year is the year Cities like Liverpool and Manchester really start to get a larger chunk of the funds traditionally spend in the South.

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    That has to be a good thing it’s unfair that the SE should have all the growth

    it needs to be evened out

    BREXIT happened largely because the North had been forgotten


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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

     Background

    The old saying goes when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.

    Well during 2019 we will see the Fed being forced to reduce rates as the stock market tumbles and then the dollar will come under pressure.  This will have major implications across the bond and currency markets.  This will cause a slowdown in economic activity- even recession- across the world as adjustments are made. Due to the level of debt countries will have to maintain and increase interest rates to finance this debt. Higher inflation will add to the problems.

    Prediction

    Higher UK rates putting house prices under pressure. (Already happening)

    Slowdown in economic activity resulting in job losses, pressure on household budgets- rent arrears will increase. (Already happening)

    Government will be forced to control rents and bring in new rental regulations as fears of homeless increase across the population leading to social disorder and unrest.  (Government already trying to fix broken housing market- unsuccessfully).

    Changes in European politics as the old guard gets kick out and new nationalistic people get elected. This will become Europe’s - “European Spring” (new European elections seeing the rise of the far –right)

    Many of these predictions are already happening and you want to be leverage with high debts going into 2019. This will become  the worst financial crisis of my life time.

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    Oh dear - if this is the case, will the last landlord in the PRS please turn off the lights?

    I assume you mean "don't want to be leveraged with high debts" though?

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    Your spot on

    rent control will have huge effect

    and it will kill the BTL market

    PRA lending is also going to put a nail in the coffin

    and the closer a BTL investor is to London the biggest pain will follow

    when the tide goes out let’s see who is bathing with no clothes on

    this crash will make 2007 look like a none event

    the worry is how will they stop it reduce interest rates don’t be daft they can’t there rock bottom now ????

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.


    Hello Douglas

    I think you might find the thread by DurhamBorn very interesting, much of what you've mentioned is in accordance with the following

    https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/5613-cre...e-to-come/ . I've learnt a great deal from this epic thread. 

    Regards TMM

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    Thks - not seen it before. At least I am not the only one on this soap box.

    Changing the subject to Brexit read " The Suicide of Europe" Ingrid Detter de Frankopan . This was written just before the vote but no publisher in the UK or many European countries would print it and even stock it. Eventually it was printed in Poland and only available on the net. Everyone either against or for Europe should read it. She notes referring to the EU " The cleverest totalitarian system is one where the citizens do not realise that they live under a dictatorship"

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    It must be a good read - available on Ebay and Amazon in paperback from £80!!!

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    The cost was £9.99. Classic case of pressure being put on certain companies not to sell it, as its the most explosive booklet every produced on the EC. That follows on from my comment on publishers not touching it in many countries.

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    I'll predict a rise in amateur landlords.

    It may become a thing, like uber or airbnb, or it may be increased use of current platforms, like the increase in amateur retailers on ebay, amazon, gumtree, etc.

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