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  • Property Prices

    Regional house prices continue to fall



    The January LCPAca Residential Index has now been published.

    It is based on every transaction for full market value recorded by HM Land Registry in England & Wales, including prices of properties bought with cash and new builds, as opposed to statistics based on asking prices, mortgage approvals, or selective samples. The index tracks residential property prices and transactions within England & Wales, Greater London and Prime Central London.

    Here are the headlines:

    PRIME CENTRAL LONDON (PCL)

    A weak start to the year

    • Average annual prices for January (excluding new build) in PCL now stand at £1,809,860.
    • Monthly prices are down by 2.4%.
    • Quarterly prices are down by 5.4%.
    • All transactions fall 15.6% over the year to 3,558, down  43% on 2013.
    • New build average prices now stand at £2,940,374
    • The new build premium for the year over existing stock is 74.4%.
    • Quarterly new build transactions fall by 76% to just 51.
    • Annual transactions are down 16.1%.

    GREATER LONDON

    Prices stagnate, transactions fall

    • Average prices in Greater London (excluding new build) for January now stand at £621,019.
    • Prices stagnate with monthly growth of 0.6% and quarterly growth of just 0.1%.
    • Annual prices rise by 0.6%, the weakest performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
    • All transactions fall by 5.2% across the year.
    • New build prices have increased 17.1% over the year and now stand at £675,557.
    • New build transactions, however, plummet by 19.0%.

    ENGLAND AND WALES (EXCLUDING GREATER LONDON)

    Monthly prices continue to fall

    • Average prices in England and Wales (excluding new build) see a fourth consecutive monthly fall to £259,442.
    • Monthly prices fall by 0.2% and quarterly prices fall 2.9%.
    • All transactions fall by 1.9% over the year and now stand at 798,296.
    • New build transactions now stand at 94,139, an annual increase of 3.9%.
    • New build prices stand at £301,294
    • They have seen an annual increase of 3.8%, resulting in a 15% premium over existing stock.

    Click here to download the full report... 

    Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments:

    Prime Central London

    The bad news continues in Prime Central London (PCL) with price falls across the month, quarter and year. Average annual prices in January for Prime Central London now stand at £1,809,860. They have fallen 2.4% over the month and 5.4% over the quarter. 

    Transactions in PCL remain at historically low levels and now stand at 3,558, a fall of 15.6% over the year. This is fewer than 69 a week. Harrods Estates is the latest agency to ‘rationalise its business’ by closing their branch on Kensington Church Street. 

    With just under five weeks to go until the Brexit deadline, many investors are delaying any purchase until April, when there may at least be ‘a clear direction of travel’. However, there is a new momentum in the market as other investors see a moment of opportunity, before demand and sterling have a chance to strengthen.

    Greater London

    Average prices for Greater London in January stand at £621,019, showing monthly growth of 0.6% and nominal quarterly growth of 0.1%. Prices are lower than they were prior to the June 2017 General Election, as confidence continues to hamper the London market.

    Transactions have fallen 27% since the introduction of the Additional Rate Stamp Duty (ARSD) in April 2016. The last year has seen a drop of 5.2% to 88,224.

    Notwithstanding any decision on Brexit, this protracted period of uncertainty may well continue for 2019 and beyond. Having seen the time taken to negotiate the UK’s exit from the EU, it is likely that the transition period will represent an equally bumpy ride.

    In contrast, new build prices have surged ahead showing annual growth of 17.1%. This has resulted in a 21.6% premium over older stock, the highest in almost two decades. Transactions, however, have seen a significant fall of 19.0% over the year.

    There are now indications that these trends are reversing as developers are obliged to reduce asking prices to gain sufficient traction in the market place to generate sales.

    England & Wales

    Average prices for January in England and Wales (excluding Greater London) stand at £259,442. This represents a 0.2% fall in monthly prices and a drop of 2.9% over the quarter. Prices have now been in decline since September 2018. It appears that the uncertainty that has been so apparent in London for some time has now permeated to the rest of the UK. 

    Annual transactions at 798,296 are now below the levels seen in 2014 and have fallen by 1.9% over the year.

    The introduction of ARSD, in hindsight, seems to have been a tipping point for the UK housing market. With a flurry of transactions in the run up to April 2016 to ‘beat’ the new tax, there has been a steady decline ever since.

    As Brexit uncertainty continues to roll on and the chance of a ‘No Deal’ exit still very much on the table, buyers are viewing any potential purchase as a risk. As property is, by and large, the most expensive purchase of their lives, they are preferring to wait and see, not only what happens on March 29th but also during the post-Brexit transition period. 

    In contrast to London, the new build sector in England and Wales is showing a more robust performance, with both annual transactions and prices moderately up.

    Click here to download the full report... 

    SEE ALSO  -          The big bad ass Brexit brief for landlords

    UP NEXT -              The North/South divide - property perspective

    DON'T MISS -         13 years of stagnant value in the North East

    NOW WATCH:

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    Only my posts and yours are here. Nothing else I can see

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    I mean that there is a title, but nothing else. Is it maybe hidden for me?

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    Nothing is hidden from you as far as I am aware.  I can see the article perfectly.  Is anyone else experiencing this problem?

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    Great facts and figures in this thread! With falling house prices, there are more deals on the market allowing more investors to get better deals.

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