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LCP has analysed HMRC’s Quarterly Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) Statistics for Q2 2018 released this week. In conjunction with the Quarterly Land Transaction Tax Statistical Release from the Welsh Revenue Authority, this reveals:
HMRC’s quarterly report for Q2 reflects the generally gloomy reports for the UK property market as a whole.It has seen SDLT receipts fall by 13.8% compared with the same quarter a year ago. This amounts to a drop of almost a third of a billion pounds. Moreover, receipts in Q2 are no greater than three years ago, in Q3 2015.This must represent a concerning picture for the Exchequer given that in December 2014, graduated SDLT was introduced raising the top rate from 7% to 12%. In addition, the Higher Rate for Additional Dwellings (HRAD) of 3% was introduced in April 2016. Rather than increasing revenues however, it appears that this has acted to depress transactions. In Q2 2018, 260,710 sales occurred compared with 314,800 in Q3 2015, a drop of 17.2%.Total receipts in Q2 2018 amounted to just under £2 billion and it appears that revenues are being bolstered by the HRAD, which represented £411 million. However, the picture here is not encouraging either. HRAD has fallen from a peak of £526 million in Q4 2017 as transactions attracting the additional dwelling premium of 3% are falling materially.The data shows a good uptake for First Time Buyers’ Relief, introduced in the November 2017 Autumn Budget, with an estimated 52,400 eligible transactions taking place in Q2 2018. HMRC estimate that this represents relief of £125 million.Overall HMRC are reporting consecutive annual drops in transactions since 2014 and the first half year results for 2018 are a further 2.1% down.However, there is a significant discrepancy between the 1,077,230 annual transactions HMRC report in England and Wales to Q2 2018 and the 866,575 reported in the LCPAca Residential Index based on Land Registry statistics. This amounts to a 19.5% differential. HMRC and Land Registry have declined to comment on the discrepancy.Naomi Heaton, CEO of London Central Portfolio (LCP), Residential Investments Specialists, comments: “The fall in transactions UK wide recorded by Land Registry and reported by LCP in its monthly residential index, is now also reflected in HMRC’s Quarterly Stamp Duty Statistics. This must be of increasing concern to the Exchequer. Despite the introduction of a slew of residential taxes, the tax take for the Revenue appears to be tailing off, with a fall of almost a third of a billion pounds this quarter compared with last year.“The cooling of prices as a result of these taxes, particularly amongst high value properties has not resulted in increased buying activity. Whilst greater affordability may benefit first time buyers and second steppers, it also disincentivises sellers who are not motivated to move if they see the value of their home decline. There is a real risk that a dwindling “feel good” factor together with Brexit uncertainty could depress the market further.”Heaton adds, “Whilst the government seems to have effectively dampened foreign investment, there have been severe repercussions in the new build sector - particularly in London.With average prices of £755,553 currently recorded by Land Registry, these properties are largely inaccessible to the domestic market. This has resulted in annual transactions falling 12.6%.However, without a thriving new build sector, it seems difficult to see how the government is going to meet its targets for affordable housing.” * Note: From this quarter Q2 2018 HMRC’s Quarterly Stamp Duty Land Tax Statistics cover England and Northern Ireland only. Prior to this they included Wales. The figures have therefore been adjusted by LCP for Q2 2018 to include Land Transaction Tax statistics from the Welsh Revenue Authority, for comparative purposes. Data from Scotland has been omitted from HMRC statistics since Q2 2015 and the information above considers the period from Q3 2015 onwards only.SEE ALSO - Where next for house prices?UP NEXT - Help needed to calculate stamp dutyDON'T MISS - BTL continues to fade as tax changes biteNOW WATCH:
Vanessa Warwick Landlord and Co-Founder of PropertyTribes.com **If you have got value from Property Tribes, find out how you can support it in remaining a free to use community resource**
Is this not what they want?
Maybe the folk who are buying are home owners?
Learn Change and Adapt ?????
Fully expected it.
Historically, in the long run, increasing taxation never brought in any more revenue and may decrease it as it has.
Another triumph for the George Osborne School of Economics.
This is really good news as spreadsheet Phil is very focussed on the returns from changes in taxation. When you factor in the lower tax receipts from VAT, corporation tax etc. caused by lower transaction numbers this clearly shows it is a failed experiment which has resulted in lower overall taxation receipts. Whether he has the balls to admit this (or blame it all on Osbourne) is another matter.
Now we just him to look more carefully at S24 to realise this is also a large part of the problem and will also cause lower transactions once the initial landlords sales/incorporation runs out.
Higher rates of stamp duty are showing little sign of deterring buyers of expensive homes and are providing a bonanza for the government, according to analysis of official figures.
Stamp duty receipts in the year to March reached £9.31 billion, the third consecutive year of growth. Receipts are £2 billion higher than two year ago. Analysis by the estate agent Savills reveals that the upsurge in stamp duty revenue has been helped by high-value properties and second homes, both of which have been the subject of tax increases over the past few years.
The article refers to Quarter 2 2018 which is April, May, and June.
I know, I just think that theres a conflict of information brewing unless something has drastically changed from one qtr to the next.
It's easy to interpret figures/statistics to fit any agenda.
The politicians are reaping what they (or Osbourne) have sewn. I don't care whether it's Osbourne and his cronies, or the other lot/s, I have little time for them, divorced as they are from the real world the rest of the population has to live and work in.SD is a wicked, pernicious, evil tax on decent people. Let's face it, if I buy a property off you, that's a private transaction and none of the government's flaming business.
I read Naomis article a few days ago.
It reflects my anecdotal view of low transactions levels inside and out of London. This is important because it's not just prices which reflect values of an asset. If you have trouble selling it, it's value to you is greater than it's value to someone else.
This is often true of BTL as the current owner will have bought the asset at a lower figure than today's asking price. This it's return on capital differs from owner to buyer.
Just because the tax rules change for us and we dancy selling (maybe) doesn't mean we can sell at what we think things should fetch. It's very relevant to value from the eyes of the potential buyer.
Hence today's transactions slowdown.
Until values line up This will continue.
My advice is, where possible, pay down leverage. Interest rates may well rise at midday today.