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  • Property Prices

    What capital growth % are you working to?

    I use a Business Plan and I am using 3% capital growth per year for the next 20 years in the North East

    What figure are you using as a projection and where are you located?

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

    Hi DL, Impossible question. With Brexit it could be minus 20-30 percent in London. I think it's safe to say that nobody can predict anything at the moment.

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    20-30% minus EVERY YEAR Dom?!

    I'm seeing a flattening out of asking prices (after a couple of months on the market if it lasts that long) - things are very variable though - no 2 postcodes that I study are the same.

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    Hi Adam, No! I expect a large sudden fall this year if Brexit goes badly, and then a long period of stagnation.

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    Hi DL - what was annual compound CG in NE over past 30/40 years?

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    Now that’s a good question I’m not sure

    what I can say is I was buying properties for 12k each in 1989 and today there worth 70k each

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

    That example translated to a tad over 6% cagr capital growth - albeit in a much more benign economy with for example average wage growth being a long term average of around 2.75% cagr (from £12445 to £28700).

    If you are looking say a 15/20 yr trajectory maybe 3% CG is not far out - though good practice would be to buffer that somewhat and put in maybe 1.5% to 2% cagr.

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    Yes I see what you mean

    I know one thing the next 30 will be very different

    the uk May go into to a good place after Europe or as Dom has indicated a very large fall

    we are in uncharted waters today

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    Learn Change and Adapt ?????

    All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.

    In the past I have used 4-5% a year as an estimate, and that was a low estimate in SE and in general it was around +10%

    now I’m happy with 0% as it is not negative Smile

    to be honest 4-5% might still work over 10 years depending on when you sell. Property is a long term business

    With all of my places it needed total refurbishment and therefore have received capital value more or less straight away.

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    I used to use 5% as a conservative figure which was generally exceeded.  On my future projections I use 2% as that is the inflation target set for the BOE.  I also expect this to be exceeded over a 10 year period though may fluctuate in shorter term.  I prefer to underestimate and then update regularly.

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    I've been using 2% recently as well on the spreadsheet. I think it's a realistic figure for where we are at the moment economy-wise (ie. pretty shafted!).

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