Browse All Tribes or choose a Tribe below:
By signing up I agree to Property Tribes Terms and Conditions
Already a PT member? Log In
Sign Up With Facebook, Twitter, or Google
By signing up, I agree to Property Tribes Terms and Conditions
Already a PT member? Log In
Don't have an account? Sign Up
To reset your password just enter the email address you registered with and we'll send you a link to access a new password.
I use a Business Plan and I am using 3% capital growth per year for the next 20 years in the North East
What figure are you using as a projection and where are you located?
Learn Change and Adapt ?????
All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.
Hi DL, Impossible question. With Brexit it could be minus 20-30 percent in London. I think it's safe to say that nobody can predict anything at the moment.
20-30% minus EVERY YEAR Dom?!
I'm seeing a flattening out of asking prices (after a couple of months on the market if it lasts that long) - things are very variable though - no 2 postcodes that I study are the same.
Hi Adam, No! I expect a large sudden fall this year if Brexit goes badly, and then a long period of stagnation.
Hi DL - what was annual compound CG in NE over past 30/40 years?
Now that’s a good question I’m not sure
what I can say is I was buying properties for 12k each in 1989 and today there worth 70k each
That example translated to a tad over 6% cagr capital growth - albeit in a much more benign economy with for example average wage growth being a long term average of around 2.75% cagr (from £12445 to £28700).
If you are looking say a 15/20 yr trajectory maybe 3% CG is not far out - though good practice would be to buffer that somewhat and put in maybe 1.5% to 2% cagr.
Yes I see what you mean
I know one thing the next 30 will be very different
the uk May go into to a good place after Europe or as Dom has indicated a very large fall
we are in uncharted waters today
In the past I have used 4-5% a year as an estimate, and that was a low estimate in SE and in general it was around +10%
now I’m happy with 0% as it is not negative
to be honest 4-5% might still work over 10 years depending on when you sell. Property is a long term business
With all of my places it needed total refurbishment and therefore have received capital value more or less straight away.
I used to use 5% as a conservative figure which was generally exceeded. On my future projections I use 2% as that is the inflation target set for the BOE. I also expect this to be exceeded over a 10 year period though may fluctuate in shorter term. I prefer to underestimate and then update regularly.
I've been using 2% recently as well on the spreadsheet. I think it's a realistic figure for where we are at the moment economy-wise (ie. pretty shafted!).