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I am not saying there is no housing crisis, rather that it may not be what most people say it is, especially politicians.
I'd like to bring to your attention a number of interesting articles about this topic.
First How to find a housing shortage ... in three misleading charts by Ian Mulheirn.
This image summarizes the article:
Then there is Yes, there is a housing shortage by James Gleeson which argues that there is concealed demand for new dwellings
Finally Ian Mulheirn's response Parrots, housing and redistribution in which he argues that rents remaining roughly constant in real terms show that house prices are not the cause of the increase in concealed housholds, but rather the relative fall in young people's wages
I haven't read the articles yet, but the main contributors to the "housing crusis" are:
Low interest rates
Low wages and zero hours contracts
If the above remain in place you can keep building and we will still have a "housing crisis"
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A major factor if the the most major factor is mass uncontrolled immigration.
Importing 10 million immigrants with insufficient accommodation for them was bound to increase demand for rental accommodation at the expense of homebuyers
IR don't make any difference
I bought when rates were 5 %; I would still buy even though dates are lower for initial deals.
The SVR for most lenders is still 5%.
QE and WTC are necessary to prevent a depression along with a housing collapse.
Govt prefers the political expediency of printing money that hide the true economic effects of the CC which have still not occurred yet.
Getting the grandchildren to pay for this generations profligacy is preferable for us.
The grandchildren won't thank us but we will be beyond caring as we will be long gone!
So sorry future generations you will ve paying for us for many years.
It will take decades for the CC to finally work it's way through the economy and then there is alm the QE to repay.
This is a massive can to kick down the road but no politicIan will be willing to stop kicking it.
So the Natonal Debt will continue to climb
If Labour win expect it to increasecto 3 trillion.
Labour just loves spending money it doesn't have for unaffordable services.
There needs to be a return to IO resi mortgages with no requirement for any repayment vehicle.
MMR is far too restrictive and needs to accommodate IO resi mortgages.
Planning needs to increase property build and far more social housing is required.
S24 and extra SDLT needs to be abolished.
Low wages are of course a major issue.
Hopefully with controlled borders employers will be forced to increase wage levels as they wi not be able to call on cheap immI grant labour anymore.
According to the first article the number of dwellings has ncreased faster than the population, despite the immigration.
Many who would have moved out of the family home are unable to do so.
The facts remain irrespective of any figures to the contrary there are insufficient properties in the areas of demand to meet that demand. .
This demand is principally in the SE.
What mustn't be forgotten is that there has been mass internal migration from the big Northern cities to the SE.
The SE just doesn't have the infrastructure to cope
There are hundreds of thousands of empty properties in the UK because they are where the demand no longer exists
Only by somehow expanding the Northern economies could we see a reversal of that Northern internal migration.
Can't see that occurring anytime soon.
Consequently the problems will continue.
Yes the facts remain, and one is that you are wrong about some of them including
Immigration is not responsible for the increase in house prices.
Whilst the population of the North has declined as a proportion, the actual population has grown so the demand for housing has increased.
I think you'll find that most would disagree that there isn't a housing shortage.
It is such perceptions which cause things like S24.
Mass uncontrolled immigration has increased price pressures.
Believe me if migrants returned there would be a massive reduction in property values.
Combined with immigration along with indigneous population growth these pressures cause demand that increase prices.
This is largely a SE phenomenon as I doubt there is any shortage of rental stock in the North
The SE is the opposite.
Too much demand not enough supply cos everyone is moving to the SE
This is just unsustainable
Personally I would radically change the rail network and subsidise it massively so that workers could affordably commute and wouldn't need to move to the SE
For that a nationalised network is required.
I would open the closed Beeching cut lines
The road infrastructure simply cannot deliver an effective transport network
Only a state subsidised one can.
Restoring lines would open up parts of the country and facilitate housing.
Provide the transport and the housing will come so reducing house price pressure.
Rail is the socialist transport of the future and should be supported by the State.
It works very well in France and Germany.
So much so that State railways from other European countries are running our railways.
So why can't we run our own State Railway and provide effective and cheap transport to allow housing in areas where rail lines used to run.
Rail is the future not roads.
The State should be prepared to invest in them as well as social housing
Private enterprise will never meet the requirements of the population.
Yes most would agree that there is a housing shortage, but the evidence shows that there is not,.
The main cause of S24 was probably the perception that large leveeraged LLs were a threat to the banks, due to mortgages being at the root of the credit crunch.
Most migrants start by renting properties. If they were a signioficant force in raising prices then rent would have increased first. But rents (at leaset outside London) have only being rising in line with wage inflation. Outside London includes most of the SE.
The number of dwellings has been increasing faster then immigration and native population growth combined., even in London.
Rail is already subsidized by the state and the majority of the spending goes on London. Subsidizing London commuters even more whilst leaving lines in the north to rot is not something I agree with.
BR proved that state railways can be crap. So can privatized ones, but some are good. Others are doing much more than BR managed and showing signs of strain.
In France the lines are sometimes good, but not always. They do have the advantage of a much less densely populated country allowing fast lines to be built without paying such enormous amounts of compensation as is needed in the UK.
Trams are working well in Manchester and seem a mjor factor in the current boom.
Talk about back to the future!!
Yes I thoroughly agree with you.
Trams brilliant way to move people round a city.
Worked very well before stupid cars came along.
I think you would struggle to convince any current London renter that there isn't a housing shortage.
Perhaps it is all perception rather than reality
But the mere fact that this pereception is causing LL so many problems means this perception is of utmost importance
How to change it is the issue.
Something I don't believe any of us will achieve.
So we are stuck with the results which are detrimentally life changing for many of us
The tram system in Manchester seems to be working like the underground in London - linking the city with the surrounding areas into a larger unit.
Based on the second and third articles there is no overall shortage of housing in London, but there is a shortage of cheap housing.
Ahhh! Yes I totally agree with you about cheap housing.
There is definitely a shortage of that in the SE!!
So the point you make is the housing crisis is not of houses per se; it is cheap houses!
I can't see cheap houses existing in expensive areas.
It seems the expensive houses are being bought by someone.
The fact that many cannot afford these houses is just stupid resentment that they can't have what others can afford.
So go move to somewhere you can afford.
Is there some divine law that states cheap houses should be available to GR in one of the most expensive cities in the world.
So the title of the thread should have been the cheap housing crisis!!