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Over the last four years we have seen house price inflation - at least in the South East - and prices are at unsustainable levels so where are house prices likely to be in 1 - 5 years time in relation to their current levels?
House price rises are not what the Govt want
I think the SE will follow what has happened in the NE ironically
It will fall in value (How Much I don't know ) then stagnation
Home owners will not move BTL will not happen ,and second home purchase will be a thing of the past
Mortgages will be harder to get and Rents will not rise a great deal
The model I have outlined is what has happened out side the SE so I can see the SE in catch up
the only glimmer I see is we will have low interest rates for decades
Learn Change and Adapt ?????
All comments are for casual information purposes only. If you wish to rely on any advice I have given please ensure you obtain independent specialist advice from a third party. No liability is accepted for comments made.
I believe we are in for a period of deflation caused by
On a local level we have
Stash your cash ready pick up bargains in the coming months and years.
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Im with you well said
there will be opportunity when Highly Leveraged Landlords are taxed to death
Interesting article on this topic today.Excerpt:In 2016, 20pc of Londoners buying somewhere other than the capital bought a home in the Midlands or the North, up from 12pc in 2014. Johnny Morris, head of research at Hamptons International said: “A move out of London has generally had more to do with changing priorities as people get older and start forming families than the housing market.When they move out of the capital, London buyers typically pay an average of 18pc more than local buyers for a property, pushing prices up and moving the ripple effect further away from the centre.
Mr Morris added: “It is likely 2016 will be a peak for London leavers. While overall the year saw growth in Londoners buying outside of the capital, in recent months the pace has been slowing. A slower housing market in 2017 will likely mean that we see less Londoners buying outside of the capital than in 2016.”Full/source story See also - 17 U.K. property market predictions for 2017
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I don't think any one knows the real outcome of the UK
We have such a lot going on
It would have been difficult to predict with out BRTEX now its impossible to really say where this is going to end
Most property news is bad news low interest rates are the only good thing at present
But Tax, regulation ,tighter mortgages, and BRTEX its not going to be good news for any Homeowner or Landlord
Could not agree more.
This is the current picture of the situation. We have just got to sit tight. Wait and see what happens.
The CEBR says about 40K growth in the next 5 years on the average UK house price of 194K ( approx 20% rise )
Regions will vary naturally
I`m using the anticipated 20% rise as a working figure for my own portfolio.
If its half of that at 10% I am still happy.
If its half as much again though at 30% I am very happy
Jonathan Clarke. http://www.buytoletmk.com
What is their past record on predictions? Just wondered why you'd work to their forecasts, also how it would effect you if the reality was zero, or -10% etc etc?
Their predictions are sometimes right and sometimes wrong. Along with the other house price forecasters its only really a stab in the dark. No one really knows. I use it as a working figure to tap into my calculator to give me reassurance and a comfort blanket more than anything else to demonstrate that high leverage magnifies any gains. I don`t as such physically work to their forecast as part of my investment strategy
High leverage means the converse of course is true if prices dip in one year then the losses are magnified ( on paper) But overall on average 5% growth pa is in the right ballpark . My model at the outset treated capital growth as the icing on the cake and simply enabled more rapid expansion through equity release when growth occurred .
If there was negative growth it presented more buying opportunities. My model relied on high yields which enabled cash flow to be saved towards next deposit . In reality if growth is zero or minus 10% in one or two years the effect on me is minimal. As long as the long term growth over a 20 - 40 yr period is positive which indications shows that historically it has been and therefore is likely it will continue to be then that`s fine by me.
Thanks! Wouldn't you prefer house prices to drop then if yield is your model (and so lucrative). A drop would facilitate more properties and so even more yield?